The Blind Spot of Certainty
Oct 07, 2026
Written by Federica Salvi
It was one of my very first coaching conversations, and I was the coachee. I was extremely sure of my point: the challenge I was facing had no easy solution. My coach listened patiently to all my very reasonable arguments.
While I was catching my breath, they asked a question that made me stop.
"What else might be true?"
Silence.
Longer silence.
My coach does not say anything.
Inside my head, different thoughts and hunches come up, and suddenly there is more space.
My shoulders drop.
I have never forgotten how sure I was, and how quickly that certainty softened. I see the same pattern in the leaders I coach: when we feel sure, we stop looking.
Conviction and certainty: what we feel, what others see
People follow conviction. It is a real asset. But under pressure, conviction quickly turns into rigid certainty. Think of them as two states we all move in and out of. On a good day we lead with conviction. Under pressure, we can slip into certainty without noticing.
Being convinced feels energising. We have a direction, we know why it matters, and we are still open to what we might learn on the way. When someone challenges us, we feel a flicker of curiosity, maybe some tension, but we stay in conversation.
Being certain feels like relief, but a relief that never quite lets us fully exhale. When someone challenges us, we feel the urge to defend. A concern sounds like resistance. New ideas, information and opinions feel like an attack. That urge to (over) explain is our tell.
Those around us often see the difference before we do. In the short term, certainty can look like "strong" leadership: fast, decisive, calming. The cost arrives later, when people start to withhold their contribution.
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When the question is closed
A question is closed the moment our mind decides it already knows the answer. We don't always notice when that happens.
Imagine a meeting where someone starts to raise a concern, and we're already answering before they finish. We didn't mean to cut them off. We just "knew" what they were going to say, and assumed it wouldn't change anything. The meeting ends well, everyone agrees, and later we wonder why nobody asked a single question.
When a question is closed, our agenda becomes fixed. We stop inviting other points of view because, if we already know the answer, why open the door?
The cost is high: people start sharing only the good news, sugarcoating the bad, and keeping dissenting ideas to themselves. Decisions get made on partial information, problems surface too late, and trust begins to wear thin.
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Convinced and flexible
The way out is not to give up our conviction. Be convinced about the end result, and say it clearly so people have something solid to follow. Stay flexible about the when and the how: route, timing and method can be fluid.
To check your own thinking, take a decision you feel sure about right now and ask:
What am I assuming here?
What else might be true?
What would need to happen to change my mind?
What part of this needs conviction, and what part needs flexibility?
Who sees this differently, and have I asked them what I am missing (and listened without defending)?
Write your answers down. They point exactly at what we have stopped questioning.
Next time you feel the urge to explain, treat it as a cue. Instead of moving on, ask one more question, like "What am I missing here?" Leave room to be surprised.
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Action for bold leaders
At your next meeting, after you share a view you feel particularly sure about, say that you'd love a richer dialogue. Then ask out loud: "Can someone please disagree with me on this?"
Then wait. Let there be silence. When someone finally speaks, thank them for enriching the conversation before you respond.
Notice what happens within you when they do. Notice what happens in the room when you ask.